Studies on Brazil’s challenges for 2018 and 2019

Start Date: Close Date:


The goal of this project was to produce studies, methodologies, and software on the following topics: (i) the reform of state and municipal social security systems; (ii) the distributive impact of pension reforms; (iii) the long-term impact of pension reforms on economic growth; (iv) the chaotic judicialisation of public policies; (v) the social impact of the opening of the economy; and (vi) Brazilian cooperation as a form of ‘soft power’ that allows to rescale the country’s external relations.


Brazilian Cooperation Agency , Secretariat for Strategic Affairs of the Presidency of the Republic of Brazil (SAE-PR) , United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) Brazil


Latin America and the Caribbean


Main Pillar

Knowledge Production

Thematic Area

Inclusive Growth

Other Thematic Areas

Social Protection

Sustainable Development Goals

SDG 1 - No Poverty , SDG 8 - Decent Work and Economic Growth , SDG 9 - Industry, Innovation, and Infrastructure , SDG 16 - Peace, Justice, and Strong Institutions

Project Results

In 2019, the IPC-IG and partner coordinators concluded this project, as established in the letter of agreement with UNDP-Brazil

All the outputs have been delivered, in a total of 18:

1. Population projections for Brazilian municipalities; 2. Entry and exit probabilities of the municipal public service; 3. Probability of pension generation; 4. Structured projections of the evolution of municipal social security regimes (RPPS); 5. Database integrating the National Household Sample Survey (PNAD) with administrative records; 6. Monte Carlo Methodology; 7. Estimation of the tax incidence of social security contributions; 8. CGE model of long-term social security simulation; 9. Workshop to discuss the various methodologies; 10. Distributive impacts of economic openness (regression); 11. Construction of a state/micro-regional input-output matrix; 12. Distributive impacts of economic openness (CGE model); 13. Common data collection model and API; 14. Mechanisms for the correlation and extraction of data; 15. Dictionary of practices; 16. Workshop on international development cooperation; 17. Survey of accountability processes for federal civil servants; 18. Typology of processes.

They were presented in a series of workshops to discuss the results with invited experts. The project’s Steering Committee approved the outputs, which will be listed in a dedicated area of IPC-IG’s website, as well as catalogued at the Library of the Presidency of the Republic.